Efficient Frontier
Growth Simulations
Optimised Weights
Site Index and Feasibility
The CCISS tool (pronounced ‘kiss’) is designed to project climate change trends in tree species environmental suitability at a site series level to identify where existing reforestation standards are misaligned with future conditions.
The CCISS tool reassesses the suitability ranks of species at a site series level under multiple plausible modelled future climates. Understanding climate and site-level species suitability is one of the foundational pieces of information that a forester requires for the creation of successful silvicultural prescriptions over a rotation.
The CCISS tool looks at near and mid-term projected changes to BGC climates and the implications to species suitability. The tool then aligns the projected future suitability rank of species at a point or area of interest with the suitability in the default stocking standards outlined in the Chief Forester’s Reference Guide to highlight where there are predicted climate change induced shifts in species suitability. This information can be used to inform planting/silvicultural prescription outlined in climate change informed stocking standard.
The CCISS tool is spatial explicit to account for the gradient of climate change that will impact different regions and elevations of a BGC.
Step 0. Report by individual point or average across all points in the same BGC
Step 1. Select points of interest to generate CCISS futures on using one of three methods
Click BGC map to add locations Use this option if you have specific sites you are interested in. Multiple points can be selected.
Choose pre-selected points for either an entire BGC or a BGC within a single Forest District. The CCISS tool has a set of pre-selected random points built in for the province. This option is to be used where general trends are desired by area. The BGC + District option is probably most appropriate for stocking standard revisions.
Upload a .CSV file with locations This option can be selected if a set of sites are already located on the landscape. E.g Planting blocks, Research trial networks.
Step 2. Click the “Generate Button” at the bottom of the screen to complete the analysis for the points of interest
The report uses a set of standard default settings which can be adjusted.
Establishment feasibility rating Default: equal weighting between historic, current, and near future (2021-2040) time periods
CCISS feasibility rating Default: equal weighting for all future 20-year time periods (2021-2100)
Global Climate Model weighting Default: 10 GCMs are given full weighting. CanESM5, UKESM1, and INM-CM5 are give no weighting
Carbon scenario weighting Default: The 450ppm scenario is fully weighted. 260 and 700ppm are slightly downweighted to 80%. The extreme 850ppm scenario is set to 0.
In left pane select the sites/BGC site group and then the site series of interest. The edatopic space of the selected site series is displayed in the graphic below for reference. By default the report will show all species that are predicted to have suitability in at least one model or future scenario. Choose “Feasible Only” option to limit list to species that meet the threshold for inclusion as suitable in any of the time periods.
The show modelled feasibility ratios for each species for each time period. The historic time period represents the ‘base case’ and reflect climatic conditions pre-1990 The current time period reflect climate of the time period 1991-2020.
Two types of output are presented here.
Select the Sites and Site series of interest. To remove or see all uncommonly associated site series adjust the minimum site series overlap slider.
The tool will display the ratio of predicted future BGC subzone/variants by time period are presented as stacked bar charts. Hovering over a stacked bar will display the percent of models predicting each BGC.
For the current time period (1991-2020) only, we use the ratio of the most common decision trees in the randomforest. All future time periods are based on the ratio from predicted BGCs from all model/scenarios
Within each BGC segment of the stack bar chart, the ratio of site series that match the edatopic space of the target unit shown.
Select the site or BGC from the dropdown menu and then select a future time period. The map will show the target BGC in yellow and the source of future climates are highlighted in grey. Darker greys indicate higher probability.
Step 0. Report by individual point or average across all points in the same BGC
Step 1. Select points of interest to generate CCISS futures on using one of three methods
Click BGC map to add locations Use this option if you have specific sites you are interested in. Multiple points can be selected.
Choose pre-selected points for either an entire BGC or a BGC within a single Forest District. The CCISS tool has a set of pre-selected random points built in for the province. This option is to be used where general trends are desired by area. The BGC + District option is probably most appropriate for stocking standard revisions.
Upload a .CSV file with locations This option can be selected if a set of sites are already located on the landscape. E.g Planting blocks, Research trial networks.
Step 2. Click the “Generate Button” at the bottom of the screen to complete the analysis for the points of interest
The report uses a set of standard default settings which can be adjusted.
Establishment feasibility rating Default: equal weighting between historic, current, and near future (2021-2040) time periods
CCISS feasibility rating Default: equal weighting for all future 20-year time periods (2021-2100)
Global Climate Model weighting Default: 10 GCMs are given full weighting. CanESM5, UKESM1, and INM-CM5 are give no weighting
Carbon scenario weighting Default: The 450ppm scenario is fully weighted. 260 and 700ppm are slightly downweighted to 80%. The extreme 850ppm scenario is set to 0.
Step 0. Report by individual point or average across all points in the same BGC
Step 1. Select points of interest to generate CCISS futures on using one of three methods
Click BGC map to add locations Use this option if you have specific sites you are interested in. Multiple points can be selected.
Choose pre-selected points for either an entire BGC or a BGC within a single Forest District. The CCISS tool has a set of pre-selected random points built in for the province. This option is to be used where general trends are desired by area. The BGC + District option is probably most appropriate for stocking standard revisions.
Upload a .CSV file with locations This option can be selected if a set of sites are already located on the landscape. E.g Planting blocks, Research trial networks.
Step 2. Click the “Generate Button” at the bottom of the screen to complete the analysis for the points of interest
The report uses a set of standard default settings which can be adjusted.
Establishment feasibility rating Default: equal weighting between historic, current, and near future (2021-2040) time periods
CCISS feasibility rating Default: equal weighting for all future 20-year time periods (2021-2100)
Global Climate Model weighting Default: 10 GCMs are given full weighting. CanESM5, UKESM1, and INM-CM5 are give no weighting
Carbon scenario weighting Default: The 450ppm scenario is fully weighted. 260 and 700ppm are slightly downweighted to 80%. The extreme 850ppm scenario is set to 0.
Step 0. Report by individual point or average across all points in the same BGC
Step 1. Select points of interest to generate CCISS futures on using one of three methods
Click BGC map to add locations Use this option if you have specific sites you are interested in. Multiple points can be selected.
Choose pre-selected points for either an entire BGC or a BGC within a single Forest District. The CCISS tool has a set of pre-selected random points built in for the province. This option is to be used where general trends are desired by area. The BGC + District option is probably most appropriate for stocking standard revisions.
Upload a .CSV file with locations This option can be selected if a set of sites are already located on the landscape. E.g Planting blocks, Research trial networks.
Step 2. Click the “Generate Button” at the bottom of the screen to complete the analysis for the points of interest
The report uses a set of standard default settings which can be adjusted.
Establishment feasibility rating Default: equal weighting between historic, current, and near future (2021-2040) time periods
CCISS feasibility rating Default: equal weighting for all future 20-year time periods (2021-2100)
Global Climate Model weighting Default: 10 GCMs are given full weighting. CanESM5, UKESM1, and INM-CM5 are give no weighting
Carbon scenario weighting Default: The 450ppm scenario is fully weighted. 260 and 700ppm are slightly downweighted to 80%. The extreme 850ppm scenario is set to 0.